Climate scientists and money
One commonly expressed belief among those who deny climate change is that the scientists are “in it for the money”. Texas governor Rick Perry stated this point of view bluntly (but inarticulately) on Aug. 17, 2011:
“I do believe that the issue of global warming has been politicized. I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. I think we’re seeing it almost weekly or even daily, scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change. Yes, our climates change. They’ve been changing ever since the earth was formed. But I do not buy into, that a group of scientists, who in some cases were found to be manipulating this data.”
What’s remarkable about this claim is that the climate science research money at stake (single digit billions, by most accounts) is tiny compared to the revenues of the global fossil fuel industry, which totaled at least $5 Trillion US dollars in 2010 (about $4 trillion for oil & gas and $1 trillion for coal, according to Appendix C in Cold Cash, Cool Climate). This is about ten times larger than the revenues for the tobacco industry in that year (see Appendix D in the book). Everyone knows how hard the tobacco industry fought to preserve its market share in the face of scientific evidence, funding competing and misleading research, lying about the results, and doing everything possible to delay action on smoking in the US. Why should we believe that the fossil fuel companies would act any differently to protect ten times as much annual revenue?
And the idea that scientists would lie in a coordinated way just to preserve research funding is a ridiculous conspiracy theory, but you have to know something about the scientific community to understand it. Scientists try to determine truth based on the preponderance of the evidence in a process that has open inquiry, rigorous peer review, and independent third party reproducibility of scientific claims. We also value truth above all else, so if we were to accept money in exchange for “throwing” our research we would be betraying the values that we hold most dear, would be punished for it in our expert community, and would be committing professional suicide. Reputation is precious and perishable, and once destroyed cannot easily be restored. In effect, taking money for altering our views is about as close as you can get to treason in the scientific community.
So the idea that scientists are “in it for the money” is just plain silly. But I can also explain this point in a different and more personal way. I’ve been working on understanding the climate issue since the mid 1980s, and I have a deep knowledge of how economic forecasting models work. If I really wanted to make money I could have applied my modeling smarts to working on Wall Street, where people with quantitative modeling skills are in high demand. Why then would I have worked at a government research lab for two decades when I could have had a salary five or ten times as high? Can’t think of a reason, other than that I actually care about whether human civilization survives the next century in some reasonable semblance of its current form.
For those who think climate scientists are manipulating their research for financial gain, I ask you this: Which do you think is more likely: that thousands of scientists who have devoted their lives to exploring for truth are engaged in a massive conspiracy to hide the truth from the world, or that the fossil fuel industry is doing its best to protect $5 trillion US in revenues? For most folks, this question practically answers itself.
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This blog post draws from Chapter 7 in Jonathan Koomey’s latest book, Cold Cash, Cool Climate: Science-based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs, to be released by Analytics Press on February 15, 2012. Written for entrepreneurs and investors, this book describes how to profit from tackling climate change, one of this century’s greatest challenges. The author acts as your company’s scientific advisor, summarizing the business implications of the climate problem for both new and existing ventures. Koomey helps you effectively allocate scarce time and resources to the most promising opportunities, drawing upon his more than 25 years of experience in analyzing and implementing climate solutions.
