Is cheap natural gas really the cause of record low US carbon emissions?

I teamed up with the folks at CO2 scorecard to analyze the causes of Q1 2012’s record low carbon emissions for the US, and you can read the full research note here.  The summary findings follow below:

In this research note we show that the mild winter of 2012 was the biggest factor in slashing first quarter’s CO2 emissions in the US to the lowest level in twenty years. Demand for natural gas and electricity for space heating in residential and commercial sectors took a major dip as the number of heating degree days plummeted in the first three months of 2012. As a result, the warm winter alone accounts for 43% of the total quarterly CO2 reductions.

Replacement of coal generation by natural gas cut another 21%. Three additional factors—decline in end-use electricity consumption, reduced consumption of petroleum products, and increased generation of wind power together contributed 35% to the total CO2 reductions. However, gasoline was essentially unchanged from the first quarter of 2011.

We discuss policy implications of these findings.

Link: http://www.co2scorecard.org/link/Index/257,12

Here’s the key graph, which tells the story nicely:

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