New report out today: Electricity Demand Growth and Data Centers: A Guide for the Perplexed

This report is the result of a collaboration between Koomey Analytics and the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, DC.

Summary: Recent reports of unprecedented growth in electricity demand from data centers have appeared in many major news outlets. These headlines encapsulate two widely expressed concerns. First, that rising energy demand from data centers could further overburden aging power infrastructure. Second, this new source of demand could jeopardize efforts to mitigate climate change. This report explores the accuracy of such narratives and explains the key drivers of load growth for data centers. We find that: 

National and regional load growth are following different trends: Despite alarming headlines, national electricity demand has not shown rapid growth, although regional variations exist. For example, the states of Virginia and Georgia are experiencing substantial electricity load growth. 

Sources of electricity load growth vary: Data centers are projected to account for at most 25% of electricity demand by 2030, a substantial but not dominant share of new load. Onshoring of manufacturing, electrification of vehicles, and building energy use are expected to contribute much more to electricity demand growth than data centers.  

Future load growth due to data centers is uncertain: The exact trajectory of future electricity use by data centers is unknown due to 1) improvements in AI system efficiency; 2) the unpredictability of demand for AI services; and 3) limits in manufacturing production capacity of AI chips, servers, and associated infrastructure. 

Although data center electricity use is growing again, exactly how that load growth will play out is uncertain. This report puts these uncertainties into context to help inform our nation’s response to load growth to ensure affordable, resilient, reliable U.S. energy. 

Reference: Koomey, Jonathan, Zachary Schmidt, and Tanya Das. 2025. Electricity Demand Growth and Data Centers: A Guide for the Perplexed. Washington, DC: Bipartisan Policy Center. February. [https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/electricity-demand-growth-and-data-centers/]