Why we need to stop coal exports and keep coal in the ground
Many observers have been heartened by the increase in natural gas production, which has contributed to significant significant declines in US greenhouse gas emissions. It is not actually the most important factor reducing emissions in the first half of 2012, as my friends at CO2 Scorecard and I showed earlier this year. And the methane emissions from fracking haven’t been measured very accurately, so there may be increased warming from methane that significantly offsets the reductions in other fossil fuels from the use of natural gas.
Another important issue addressed in the research note from CO2 Scorecard is the reduced price of natural gas resulting from fracking, which increases use of natural gas not just in the electricity sector (where gas displaces coal) but also in buildings and industrial sectors, and those increases offset emissions savings in the electricity sector.
Today there’s a story in the Guardian that shows another interesting (and troubling) price-related effect of natural gas fracking: as US coal use has declined, an increase in coal exports from the US has reduced global prices of coal. That price decrease makes it harder for countries with modest natural gas reserves to reduce use of coal-fired electricity, as the Guardian story demonstrates. The pressure is particularly intense in developing countries, which are often more price sensitive than developed countries.
This story makes a compelling case for reducing and ultimately stopping exports of US coal, in order to keep global coal prices higher than they otherwise would be. In part, US subsidies to the coal industry are subsidizing exports and reducing world electricity prices, and that’s just perverse, but even without subsidies, we need to slow and soon stop coal exports.
We need to either develop ways to sequester carbon from coal burning or keep the coal in the ground. Since the first option is being tested but is nowhere near implementation on a large scale, our only current option is not burning the coal. So that means not approving additional coal export terminals, diligently enforcing existing environmental regulations, and eliminating subsidies for coal mining. It makes absolutely no sense to export coal that we don’t burn in the US, because no matter where it is burned, it will contribute to warming just the same.
